Tajikistan's GDP growth could slow to 1.7% in 2020

World Bank analysts predict a slowdown in Tajikistan's GDP growth from 7.5% in 2019 to almost 1.7% and even lower in 2020. The authors of the WB forecast on the macroeconomic situation in Tajikistan note that the slowdown in the Russian economy due to the coronavirus pandemic will lead to a significant reduction of one of the main items of replenishment of the state budget of Tajikistan of remittances of migrants, which in turn will be the main reason for the increase of the budget deficit of Tajikistan in 2020 and limitation of the capacity of the authorities of the country to finance a large volume of expenditures. Analysts stress that these effects include a sharp decline in trade and falling commodity prices, deteriorating prospects for transport and tourism industries. At the same time, analysts of the World Bank noted that the poverty level in Tajikistan may change slightly compared to 2018, when this indicator was 27.4%. While back in 2017 it was 2% higher by 29.5%. In conclusion of the forecast, analysts of the World Bank propose to the Government of Tajikistan to reduce extreme poverty in the country to expand targeted social assistance (SSA) in those regions that are not currently covered by this program. And increase ASP payments to compensate poor households for rising utility tariffs.